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$2.93 viva energy group limited

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Gareth

3,221 Posts.

177

07/02/19

07:16

Post #: 37357003
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Sadly this has surprised me. Should I have given it’s an IPO with optimistic predicted earnings."

Well, I'm not sure that the predicted earnings as part of the IPO were overly optimistic.

Because the source of the downgrade is attributed almost exclusively to the refinery margin which has been weaker than expected.

And its not that the refinery margin expectation was unusually high because, at the IPO assumption of US$9.20/bbl is in line with the average of the preceding 3 years (with a range of US$7.0/bbl to US$10.8/bbl.

So its not that anything company-specific that has been the main driver of the adjustment in near-term earnings; rather, it has been an extraneous factor outside the control of the company.

But this is what refiner margins do... they go up sometimes and other times they go down.

But none of those short term, random fluctuations alter the fundamental valuation of the company, which is predicated on an average level of refiner margins over time.

Accordingly, over the past 2 trading days I have duly trebled my holdings, to a little over 1.5% of my investable capital.

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nice call madamswer!

VEA Price at posting: $2.19 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $2.93		Change -0.030(1.01%)		Mkt cap ! $4.672B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.96	$2.97	$2.92	$8.626M	2.936M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	38990	$2.92

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.94	88200	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	38990	2.920
7	94261	2.910
12	57928	2.900
4	16099	2.890
9	67381	2.880

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.940	88200	1
2.950	39797	4
2.960	30386	1
2.970	2912	1
2.980	13071	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 03/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

VEA (ASX) Chart