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$3.06 viva energy group limited

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Gareth

3,176 Posts.

172

07/02/19

07:16

Post #: 37357003
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Sadly this has surprised me. Should I have given it’s an IPO with optimistic predicted earnings."

Well, I'm not sure that the predicted earnings as part of the IPO were overly optimistic.

Because the source of the downgrade is attributed almost exclusively to the refinery margin which has been weaker than expected.

And its not that the refinery margin expectation was unusually high because, at the IPO assumption of US$9.20/bbl is in line with the average of the preceding 3 years (with a range of US$7.0/bbl to US$10.8/bbl.

So its not that anything company-specific that has been the main driver of the adjustment in near-term earnings; rather, it has been an extraneous factor outside the control of the company.

But this is what refiner margins do... they go up sometimes and other times they go down.

But none of those short term, random fluctuations alter the fundamental valuation of the company, which is predicated on an average level of refiner margins over time.

Accordingly, over the past 2 trading days I have duly trebled my holdings, to a little over 1.5% of my investable capital.

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nice call madamswer!

VEA Price at posting: $2.19 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $3.06		Change 0.010(0.33%)		Mkt cap ! $4.880B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.07	$3.10	$3.05	$10.30M	3.356M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	66683	$3.04

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$3.06	52307	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	66683	3.040
5	41910	3.030
2	16253	3.020
6	32303	3.010
24	104102	3.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.060	52307	3
3.070	30069	4
3.080	26181	2
3.090	9536	2
3.100	8823	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 23/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

VEA (ASX) Chart

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