sungar thanks for the tip on HLG, pub landlords doesn't sound...

  1. 103 Posts.
    sungar thanks for the tip on HLG, pub landlords doesn't sound too bad (in glum times perhaps folks go to the pub instead of on holidays).

    i had a while back looked into the other 3 you mentioned, FXL, ILF and PTN.

    FXL is the only one not a REIT, but they will take a battering for a while and they know it- 30% ff div yield came down to 17% (still not too shabby but kinda run of the mill these days). they pointed to a stable bad-debt rate, for now. i got the feeling more folks will buy a cheaper computer from their own cash instead of financing a top of the range one via folks like FXL. they are trying to de-hitch their wagon from harvey norman which is doing it real tough.

    ILF (retirement homes in USA, managed by ING) has a gorgeous div yield, of course one has to believe the company that the retirement sector in USA has stickier valuations than the rest of US real estate (a thought that may have some merit, the elderly are not as mobile a housing-consumer as young uns). i do not know if retirement village prices bubbled up as much as the broader US RE market, perhaps it did not since retired folks buy property out of lifetime savings rather than with a loan against future earnings. but if their 'premium' retirement villages have not slipped in price while the rest of american housing seems to be, retirement housing is still competing in a wider housing market, old folks may just buy a fire-sale non-village florida condo instead. Posters on the ILF thread here on HC are still quite enthused (surprise surprise), some of which loved that ING managed the fund, that this carried an implicit capital guarantee. i got the feeling this is a guarantee not worth relying on (no offence to ING) given the dutch govt gave them 10b euros on 19th Oct, though i think more of a pre-emptive so they would not have to pony up another of Fortis' $20b euro and whatever ABN Amro scored.

    PTN looked great on the surface to me also. have a look at recent posts on another share chatter site (won't say which one). by the looks the "responsible entity" (the fund managers) are attempting to empire build into BBC with dilutive effect on current PTN unitholders' NTA. i myself was turned off by the results up to end of 30june08 that had distributions of $47m for the year, upward property revaluations of $55m for the year and profit of $57m for the year (so if the revalution is excluded, it was a profit from cashflow of $2m)- they paid the $45m shortfall of distributions out of cash from their IPO about a year ago. REITs and infra funds are known to do this, use revaluations to increment up debt carried and use the cash for distributions, i just think is particularly short sighted given how young this trust is.

    sorry michael to rain on this parade. i'm starting to believe finding the best share is the one left standing when you work out how bad the rest of them suck.


 
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