Personally i think 1 dollar or slightly more is likely if prices...

Personally i think 1 dollar or slightly more is likely if prices hold above say 120USD (or say over 900rmb dalian futures prices.)

We did get 75 cents last time in the 1st half of 2023 FY. However the average prices are quite different.

Just from looking at the chart briefly.

Comparision of IO prices (1st Half FY 2023).
July - price ranged from 114USD to 104USD
August - price ranged from 109 USD to 95 USD
September - price ranged from 101 USD to 98USD
October -price ranged from 96 USD to 85 USD
November - price ranged from 90USD to 107 USD
December - price ranged from 110USD to 116 USD

(1st Half FY 2024)
July - 109 USD to 114 USD
August - 105 USD to 109USD
September- 117 USD to 122 USD
October - 117 USD to 122 USD
November so far - 125USD to 130USD
December ??
(Source)
(https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ironore62)

So looking at it you can see this 1st half is significantly stronger than than the previous one.

I personally think if in the next 6 weeks...

Prices average around 130USD or more then the divdend may be around 110 to 115 cents per share.

If prices average around 120 to 125USD then i think likely a 1 dollar dividend will be offered.

If the average price over the next 6 weeks is less than 120USD then we will be looking at 90 to 95 cents per share.

I hope that helps.