DNA & OCP where to from here

As I mentioned the other day, I thought I'd write down a few of the options for the stock from here. 

1. OCP make a bid for the rest of the company and take it private. I'd expect with the high turnover in the stock, they might try a bid at around 10c. They'll take it private, sell it or re-list it somewhere like Singapore or south asia with a fresh set of investors. Bad outcome for us as this is worth well more than 10c

2. OCP put board members on the board and then refinance the megabank debt. They use the free cashflows from the business to start a share buy back. If you make the (reasonable) assumption that DNA wins their damages case against the Thai vendor and the company cancels the vendor's ~19% then OCP have the equiv. of 46% today and they commence a buy back to get themselves to at least 51% which would be a buy back of 8% of shares to get them to 51%. Using 10c average for the buy back, it is only $5m. Looking at that, it's not much money, so I'd assume the would just keep doing about that amount each quarter. 

3. OCP put board members on the board and refinance the debt and start the dividend again. They get their money back via a handy 9-10% interest rate on the debt plus distribute the free cashflow to the shareholders (of which 46% will go to them). 

4. Combination of 2 & 3 above, they use the current cash on balance sheet to buy back shares as quickly as possible, getting themselves to 60-70+% and then begin a large dividend payout ratio using the ongoing free cashflow the business generates. Share go up significantly from the buy back (they make capital gain), they get 60-70+% of the (say) 90% payout ratio of the after tax cash generated ($42m EBTIDA less interest of $3m less tax = $27m * 90% = $24m dividend, so they'll get $15m-17m+ per year in dividends). 

5. OCP find a larger casino operator or industry investor who will take a big chunk of their shareholding at a premium and then that operator makes a bid for the rest of the company, or creeps up to 51% and controls the business implicitly and probably does a better job running it and grows the business (and we benefit from that).

6. OCP put board members on and settle with the Thai Vendor, cancel his 19% shares, keep the cash from the final payment, call a truce, maybe give him the management contract and some giant incentive to get it from the current $30m EBITDA back to $80m-$90m 


7. OCP put board members on and settle with the Thai Vendor, cancel his 19% shares, keep the final payment, sell him the property back for 4x current EBTIDA (AUD$120m) pay back all the debt and distribute $100m (probably more like $110m) to shareholders (of which they get $46m) so we get 15c cash and keep our share in the business which is just Aristo which is probably worth 4x EBITDA of (say) $8m  or 5c on the shares after you are paid out the 15c

8. They package the whole thing up and give it to an trade buyer (similar to 5) but the transaction just gets done in one go, someone gets an option over the OCP shares and launches a take over for the rest.

I'm sure there are many others I've missed. 

Lots of ways to make money here. Only big downside is the lease arbitration but I get the feeling that isn't strong and worse case they'll get cash for the buildings, operations etc even if they get booted off the land.