- 1 is unlikely to happen cause they are not private equity....

- 1 is unlikely to happen cause they are not private equity. Their mandate is secured lending. They are not in the long haul. They are not crazy enough to dump more money if the biggest asset is under threat. They already sank 4-5 percent of their mandated capital into this. I am sure their investor is getting nervous. 
- 2, 3 and 4 can happen if Megabank wants to redeem and they want to preserve their capital to keep the whole company afloat. 
- 5 likely their most desired outcome. That goes to my theory that Thai vendor has the most incentive to do so to avoid lawsuit in Singapore and it is an asset he made a killing and buy back on the cheap. Other buyers are unlikely to wade into this considering Thai vendor still hold blocking stake and uncertainty amid lease arbitration. No one will buy until lease arbitration clarity. I think thai vendor likely to think he will win and negotiate once he has the lease arbitration in his favour.
- 6 & 7  unlikely as well to cancel his 19% especially when lease arbitration goes in his favour. 
-  8 is unlikely as well. No one will put up so much cash with the biggest asset under threat. 

- Other scenario likely to happen is to sell Aristo at 60-80 mil  and pay off all loan and be net cash and stay afloat. Wrestle with vendors via double arbitrations. Lease arbitration goes to vendor and sales arbitration go to continuing shareholder. Then there can be a truce or equitable deal for OCP and Thai vendor.