dndn: update from inside the j.p morgan conf

Issued by J.P. Morgan.

DNDN is wrapping up its breakout session at the JPM HC Conf, and we wanted to pass along some quick takeaways. The company may have preannounced better-than-expected 4Q Provenge sales last week, but management held onto some dry powder for today's standing-room-only presentation.

In our view, the key incremental disclosures (in no particular order) were as follows:
- The company plans to add ~500 new prescribing accounts in 2012 (about double where they are now) and anticipates deeper penetration into existing accounts.
- The MAA for European approval of Provenge was filed, and a decision is expected in 2013.
- A Provenge/Zytiga sequencing study will start in 1H12, and considering that CD54 upregulation is the primary endpoint (determined during the manufacturing process), results should be available this year. This study is comparing the difference of starting Zytiga therapy at the same time as Provenge or 6 weeks after Provenge is done.

Another point worth noting is that there will be potentially important new data disclosures for Provenge at ASCO-GI (Feb), AUA (May), and ASCO (June). The presentations will highlight in particular the product's mechanism of action from the NEOACT study, and there will be further color on the therapy's survival advantage by looking at the placebo patients from IMPACT who did NOT cross over to receive frozen Provenge (aka Frovenge).

Lastly, DNDN spent some time discussing some ways in which they could drive down COGS by optimizing and automating the Provenge manufacturing process.