You are absolutely right. Liquidity is constraining this stock...

You are absolutely right. Liquidity is constraining this stock at the moment. The way I see it playing out is that debt funding followed by equity raising is the key catalyst. The stock will re-rate on the back of this. They need to raise US$322m to develop the project, 60/40 Debt / Equity implies they will be raising about US$129m in equity or A$175m. Assuming it is funded part rights issue and part placement I can envisage a 1 for 1.5 Rights Issue. Assume its priced at 80c and you are 176m new shares to existing holders and then assuming the balance (i~US$35m is funded via a placement to new / existing institutional investors at ~80c), then there is another 43m shares.

So by raising A$175m in equity at 80c per share you would be issuing around 219m new shares or an increase of 75% of issued capital. I can almost guarantee that trading volumes go up >10x on the back of that, which is what is going to enable institutions to get involved.... That is why they listed in London... not for retail money obviously. But its a bit chicken and egg. These guys need liquidity before they can get involved. As a typical rule, fund managers when building or exiting a position would not want to be more than 20% of the volume in a stock for any more than 5 days in order to get set and get out.... so you can work backwards as to what turnover needs to get to in order to build a position of a particular size if you are a fundie.

This why I was surprised that he progress of the debt financing activities seemed to have been de-prioritised in the release of the quarterly a few days ago... it is the most important thing for the stock at the moment by a long long way insofar as it triggers an equity raising. I hope these blokes can sell because they need to be on the road in London beating the drum... If not, I am happy to go and give them a chop out