It may hold at this level but if you buy here, you need to bear...

It may hold at this level but if you buy here, you need to bear in mind that the next news catalyst is now in the hands of the company.

Most potential next announcements I can think of present downside risk:

1. The review of the asset valuations is completed. Maybe they all hold up 100%, but if even a few of them are marked down only slightly, I doubt that would be seen well by the market.

2. The estimate of applying the new revenue recognition standard to their performance fees on exit results in some or all of the $37 million non-current "performance fees receivable" balance being written off, and they have to disclose which year's revenue the written off amounts were recognised in so you can see how much lower historical profits should have been under the new standard. No cash impact but not a good look a few months after raising capital with that balance on the books.

3. There is any sign of a cash crunch. They admit they need to cut costs, they are hoping to rely on institutions for more of their fund capital, most of the capital raising is committed for co-investment and as they said in their last half yearly report a subset of institutions require them to co-invest alignment capital from their balance sheet.

I may be too pessimistic but I feel like I have seen variations of this story before. A new Chair, board members and CEO may be positives but I'd need a bit of convincing to jump on board at this point and they will have their work cut out turning this ship around.