Do I understand this correctly?

If somebody could clarify and confirm these numbers for me that would be much appreciated.

So the pre-feasibility study gives an EBITDA of $261m but was based off an annual intake of 0.6m tonnes and metal prices in the vicinity of what they are today. But we recently find out that they plan to increase this to 1.2-1.5m t/a or 2-2.5x. If true, would this not then increase this EBITDA to ~$500-600m/a?
So less CAPEX of $550mil, which now severely decreases the payback period, initially ~4 years.
Now, already they have signed deals with ore supply, the Townsville port, and sales and have recently proven the technology works.
So what am I missing here? They claim initial production of June 23 with a 12 month ramp up time.
So am I safe to assume, they plan on making approx. half a billion dollars a year come June 2024, just 3 years away.

If this is true, why on earth are we still at a $100mil MC?
I don't understand. What are the risks going forward that prevents them from achieving these targets that I am not seeing?

Thanks guys