Hi All,
I've been putting in quite a bit of time into assessing my portfolio this week to see where (if anywhere) I should shift my capital for short, medium, and long term investments. I own securities in two (semi) comparable (potential) gas producers, one is LCK and one is RLT. I note that RLT is much further along (will begin production next year) than LCK and I've used it as a bit of a benchmark to see what needs to be complete before off-take agreements, JVs and that of the like are realised. I completely understand the difference between UCG, ISG, and extraction for distribution, but essentially the fundamentals of proven/probable reserves and flow rates will be a key factor in determining a strategy.
LCK
Share Price - $0.085
RLT
Share Price $1.24
LCK
Reserve (2P) - 1,153 PJ
RLT
Reserve (2P) - 145 PJ
LCK
Flow Rate - 7,551,093 scf/d
RLT
Flow Rate - 850,000 scf/d
So, LCK has approximately 8X the reserves and 8X the flow rate, but is 6% of the price of RLT.
I'm looking to stimulate a bit of discussion to see what the difference is between the two, and whether that will translate to a steadily increasing SP in the coming pre-production years.
Is the urea/fertiliser market not as sexy as LNG/helium?
Is sovereign risk too great in Australia?
Is the location of Leigh Creek an issue?
Fundamentally, I believe in this project so perhaps I'm not seeing something because I WANT to believe we'll all be millionaires in 2 years. If I bought 30k of shares today (approx 350,000 shares), should I really expect to sell at $2/share and retire in Byron Bay with Chris Hemsworth in 2023? Does an opportunity for a 2-3 years 2,500% ROI exist here?
Looking forward to ALL (sensible) opinions.
Anon
DYOR
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