do some maths, page-9

On 16/03/08 17:54 I have posted following calculation:


Let's do some maths

3800b a day at present
With a prospect to rump up a production in this quoter let's make it 3900barrels/day as an average (very conservative)

Oil price at the moment $110 a barrel, but it can go both ways up or down so I'll take future price of $95USD/b to be on a save side.

OK, six months translates to 366 days divided by 2
which equals to: 183days x 3900b/day x $95=$67.801.500USD

Wow, nearly 68 millions USD for a half of the year.

Now, let's not get too excited - TAX!!!!

It is something I have no knowledge of, so I presume that it might be in the range of 50/60% of their income
Taking into consideration 60% tax it still makes $27 million
USD profit for half of the year what with a present exchange rates translates to $28.8 million AUD.
The expenditure are to be stable or less than $8,8 million
AUD which is leaving us with $20 AUD million profit for half of the year or staggering $40 million a year.

Might be some faults in my calculations as it is nearly 40C in Adelaide in the recent 3 weeks, so I encourage you mates to challenge my maths. Can you also tell me what it means to a share price, if the calculation is correct.

Thanks
Kajtek


And for this post I did get Entropylord response:

Kajtekpis,

yeah, quite a few faults, suggest you do some research.

Costs are very low but you need to recognise the discounted price (to WTI) they get for their heavy oil. Even more importantly there is royalties and SRB (a windfall type tax) in addition to a 50% income tax.

Suggest you review some of recent CVN presentations, plus a recent one from POE on the panorient website.

Finally, there is a Hartleys report (CVN website) that does some real maths.

EL

Well Entropylord,

I tried to be reasonable and conservative in my calculations
but it seems to me that your conservatism is bordering with negativity some times.
Revenues are at 23 million for March 2008 quoter - Twice that my prediction. Any comment EL ? No hard fillings at all.
Kajtek