Ace, Forget YBC 2 and 3 as EPE has no share in them. YBC3 is...

Ace,
Forget YBC 2 and 3 as EPE has no share in them. YBC3 is dead anyway at 5b per day!

Net present value per barrel is $25 and not $50 in any calculation. You are always after profit at today's value. In other words what would someone pay for it today.

If YBC 4 was 1m barrels and this is not confirmed anywhere, then a value for that would be as follows:

1m X $25 X 50% = $12.5m

Total shares including options to exercise is about 100m giving about 13c per share for YBC4.

If it was only 200000 barrels ( same as YBC2) the value would be back at about 3c per share.

Cash would be about $14m after all options where exercised giving about 14c per share.

I dont know the worth of Smegsy. Does anyone have basic numbers on this? say its worth 5c per share in this exercise.

The total is then in the range 22c to 31c depending on how big YBC4 is. Until that size is proven, the price is likely to drift back towards the 21c mark which is what it has been doing over the last few days.

Of course speculation can push it higher on any particular day, but at the low 20c mark you can say that you are pretty well covered by the actual value which may be there.

The 5.2m barrels is pure speculation and YBC4 will never produce 5m barrels. The 1m barrel figure is 5 times better than the previous holes. Is that a safe or reasonable assumption? You be the judge.

More data is needed to get closer to a proper number. In the meantime the market is sorting itself out on a reasonable valuation.