VYS 5.88% 32.0¢ vysarn limited

do we have anything of value?, page-8

  1. 3,740 Posts.
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    From the half yearly:

    "The biggest issue in the first half of the 2012/13 year has been the lack of a market for the non-metallic product (NMP or AL80 .... The NMP stockpile at the plant and on adjacent land is now at the point where it is becoming a restraint to future processing rate increases ..... it is still believed that the filter press when installed will result in a substantial increase in processing capacity, but this would only add to stockpiling issues at this time."

    The company was indicating that shifting or selling the NMP/AL80 was THE main issue to be addressed to the extent they deferred the new press. Hence we can infer that at least a partial solution to the AL80 situation has been found. The reason I questioned Slick and Rod in the first place was to clarify if there was objective evidence that AL80 stockpiles were decreasing as this would confirm that a solution had been found and that MHM was truly closed loop.

    I appreciate that the small cap sector has been totally hammered, but MHM is now firmly in microcap territory and a very small fish for any major alu player to snap up if they truly have the goods. The volume is tiny currently in terms of absolute numbers of shares traded, but even more pitiful when you consider the value of shares changing hands each day. I'm sure the volume will spike if there is any positive news as those who are truly sick of the slow progress bail out, especially if any of the top 20 decide to bail.

    Buying remains hugely speculative until we prove closed loop operation, but the next section in the half yearly is informative. The company indicate that once Moolap proves steady state operations (which I presume includes a solution for NMP/AL80) that they think US expansion is possible and even fundable based upon the Moolap numbers, the credibility of this statement is enormously bolstered by the ongoing support of Alcoa who can surely facilitate replication of the business in Kentucky with more reliable bespoke plant set-up.

    Sitting at multi-year lows with the real prospect of (marginally) profitable, sustainable Australian operations and a roadmap around the corner for US expansion makes this a potentially lucrative punt. Hence my enthusiasm for ascertaining if Moolap is shifting the Al80. I think we'll know one way or another by August.

    But hey, I'm an eternal optimist, and currently it's proving extremely expensive.
 
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