Do you still think Mesoblast will be the next CSL?, page-116

I umm'd and arr'd about pulling back before the trials results. They often fail and it can be lucrative to buy back in later. Trouble I've found is that your capital and time gets involved elsewhere, and when it's time to buy back in your not watching, so you miss the bus. If you don't have written rules that you follow, a simple strategy like buy and hold may be superior. This assumes that your target is going to make it in the end. And you can get around the last point by some diversification. Not all your positions need to be winners if you have multiple positions and strategies.
A year ago I invested in MSB because of CHF and CLBP. GvHD was small beer, and I didn't find it a big problem when it received a CRL by the FDA. CHF knocked it out of the park with 60% reduction in mortality/heart attacks/strokes, however what part of the cohort was that result seen in? The good Top line results are selective and it might not be approvable without another trial. However, in the end I believe we have a product. Might take some more years and dilution, but we'll get there and the rewards will follow for the patient.
CLBP is yet to read out, although their close. I always thought it had the best chance of success. Even if the pattern follows from CHF and we get a selective good result for CLBP, that would still be a win in my book. Trials can be redesigned and approvals more certain once the variables are well known. Maybe MSB has gone to Phase 3 too early and should have learnt more in cheaper Phase 2 trials about when their cells are effective in the target disease spaces.
ARDS was a big distraction this year, and there may be a product in the end, however its too early to say either way. MSB certainly had a go in the Covid therapy fight, was likely asked to have a go and was provided a lot of assistance, however its hard to hit a moving target. The biggest problem with ARDS was a lot of shareholders got sucked into the pump and dump. Professional investors are taking their place and those who sold will find it hard to buy back in once MSB leaves the runway for the final time.
- Know why you bought. For me that hasn't changed, CHF and CLBP.
- Know when you'd sell. For me if CLBP was a bust, I'd seriously scale back my position.
- And know when you'd walk away. If MSB lost the ability to raise funds.
I wish Longs all the best.