Non, je ne regrette rien
Or
Regrets, I have a few but too few to mention.
Just to quote a few old crooners.
After all the Utter Bollo--- on this thread, lets try to unpack what happened here.
Bid from ALB, firstly rejected, then with premium for control added: accepted at $3.
Say premium for control 25%ish, so fair value could be around $2.25 assuming a fair, untroubled, run towards production in 2024.
About 50% more than SP pre-bid.
GR says, 'not on my watch',
Both ALB & GR are taking an intergenerational view on Li, availability and viability in an electrification environment.
Remembering, much of the current Li supply is in unreliable jurisdictions & in South America causing untold environmental damage.
Supply chains are looking for ethical supply, not wishing to be party to environmental damage.
Exchanging Carbon damage with Li Extraction Damage: now there's a lawyers picnic.
So: Aus. Li hard rock, ethical supply, stable politics, If that is not an oxymoron
. = Premium for Control, Seat at the Table, Blocking Stake, etc.
If you are taking a 20 year view in an inflationary environment, please don't think that inflation is tamed, all Govs. are going to need to reintroduce QE to pay the interest on the gigantic pile of accumulated debt. But that's another story.
Much better to have continuous supply of one of the worlds wonder metals, rather than a pile of Fiat cash, fast eroding in value.
CR: priced at the mid-point before the bid, after deducting premium for control $1.80, yes about right, about 40c more than pre-bid average, and 40c less than the perceived value of around $2.25 ish.
Maybe the BOD wanted higher (Too Greedy) underwriters, Lower.
A view I hold is that the BOD deliberately accepted $1.80 to inflict a massive financial blow to GR as selling out at $3 was infinitely better than being locked in at $1.80.
But that's conspiracy theory for you from an old guy who's seen it all and sometimes been in the thick of it.
My view, accumulate on weakness, but need about a minimum 2/3 year view to production, then a moon-shot?, unlikely, more a FMG, reliable, proxy for the de-carbonizing economy.
Just my view, from the UK
cheers
XanaX
(20min delay)