does ECX have to merge or is it to be decided by SH?, page-8

It would seem to me that there are low expectations of the merger going through! Otherwise, would you buy MMS at $15.03 when you could buy ECX at $2.21?

Consider the following:

$10,000 buys 4524 ECX shares (1000/2.21). For those shares if the merger goes through in its present form, you would get $2081 (4524*0.46) cash plus 638 MMS shares worth $9589 (638*15.03) for a combined value of $11,670 which represents a 16% premium over buying $10,000 worth of MMS shares (all calculations approximate, ignore rounding errors and transaction costs.

 
[NEEDLESS TO SAY, DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AS MY LOGIC AND/OR MATHS MIGHT BE COMPLETELY WRONG. Even if the logic and maths are correct, they hold for current relative prices only and will change as the relative prices change.]

I bought some ECX a couple of weeks ago as a hedge against part of my MMS holding (in case there was a revised higher offer from someone else that drove up the price of ECX or should MMS be forced to make a higher bid). I am underwater on that trade at the moment but no worse than if I had bought MMS shares directly. (However, if the merger had gone ahead today at the relative closing prices, I would be well ahead on the trade)

I was considering selling some MMS to buy some ECX but for me their “guidance” raised red flags for MMS as well as ECX and the proposed merger. I must admit I am tempted to sell out of both ECX and MMS which both seem to be caught up in poor industry dynamics at the moment.