It would seem to me that there are low expectations of the...

It would seem to me that there are low expectations of the merger going through! Otherwise, would you buy MMS at $15.03 when you could buy ECX at $2.21?

Consider the following:

$10,000 buys 4524 ECX shares (1000/2.21). For those shares if the merger goes through in its present form, you would get $2081 (4524*0.46) cash plus 638 MMS shares worth $9589 (638*15.03) for a combined value of $11,670 which represents a 16% premium over buying $10,000 worth of MMS shares (all calculations approximate, ignore rounding errors and transaction costs.

 
[NEEDLESS TO SAY, DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AS MY LOGIC AND/OR MATHS MIGHT BE COMPLETELY WRONG. Even if the logic and maths are correct, they hold for current relative prices only and will change as the relative prices change.]

I bought some ECX a couple of weeks ago as a hedge against part of my MMS holding (in case there was a revised higher offer from someone else that drove up the price of ECX or should MMS be forced to make a higher bid). I am underwater on that trade at the moment but no worse than if I had bought MMS shares directly. (However, if the merger had gone ahead today at the relative closing prices, I would be well ahead on the trade)

I was considering selling some MMS to buy some ECX but for me their “guidance” raised red flags for MMS as well as ECX and the proposed merger. I must admit I am tempted to sell out of both ECX and MMS which both seem to be caught up in poor industry dynamics at the moment.