This is inflation for sure, but what is the risk if you are long...

This is inflation for sure, but what is the risk if you are long those commodities (i.e. everyone else incl banks)? e.g. what is systemic about this? Isn't it (so far) about a few countries with some poor trade balances induced by higher prices? It is who owns their debts who might suffer.

Consider the Dubai default, PIIGS (ongoing) etc and the US situation is no better (still). All handled to date by ZIRP and banks access to near zero interest lending. OIS and LIBOR have so far not moved.

When it becomes a common banking/investing threat, then I would suspect the broader markets to retract and OIS/LIBOR to react. Otherwise be short these countries and long commodities .... since anyone with net exports of commodites (like Australia is to date) would be winning large .... except that our wheat crops took a hit with the floods daggnabbit.

Not sure this is the start, but it may be another straw ...

As for these countries, in the words of the late K.Packer - "I'll flip you for the lot".