HUM (ASX) Dog Stock

Originally posted by joda: ↑

to all shorters, doomsday merchants and those with a positive attitude wanting FXL to succeed.
Is there a possible strategy at play (just around the corner) in the web of intrigue .......... with short sellers who keep a stock as low as possible for as long as possible that just before a very positive announcement they switch tack and buy buy buy so that an increasing share price becomes a positive runaway, increasing dramatically a normal increase on good solid news from an already profitable company.
The short selling, positive news and attraction of new buyers due to FOMO super charges the share price.
Clearly we all know what sort of news would maximise that outcome.
The focus of short sellers has certainly never been greater on FXL the last 2 months with clear indications the business is not suffering as badly as some might indicate (I do not think anyone really wishes it be so).
1/ they have told us business lending has been increasing
2/ they have won recent marketing awards in NZ and their credit card is regarded best of breed
3/ BNPL under humm is getting more and more traction with high volume sales
4/ Bundll (which I have used) does exactly what one would want it to do "for zero cost" - find another product that does that. Superbundll with Mastercard behind it, thinking about the new world could be on a winner at a more reasonable $4000 limit.......and the ability to rollout worldwide is always there (albeit very carefully) Card businesses have to find a way forward with millennials.
5/ costs in the business being stripped out >$7m projected.

Negatives - they do have this issue around BNPL financing Solar bubbling in the background which needs to be solved and we have no concrete idea how well Bundll has been received - hasn't helped that they had to cut back on Marketing their products in Apr/May and certain retailers have had their businesses destroyed in the interim i.e. Flightcentre, Myers etc. However we also know that online generally is leaping ahead with other products coming to the fore to fill the gap i.e. gym equipment, home office and solar as a way to cut energy costs.
NZ is out of its severe lockdown and has $5B of overseas travel looking for something to spend it on internally - what will Australians do over the coming months ...Afterpay is not going to help.
All up the negatives seem to be with some luck balanced out even with lockdowns and uncertainty.

So why have short sellers with nearly 30million shares involved been able to manipulate this share so successfully for so long even with recent interviews with RJ and crafted announcements keeping us all guessing as too long term strategy. There has only been one substantial change of interest notice in last 3 mths from Renassiance and that was selling 3m shares. Who has been buying the 605m shares traded since 24/2/20 that nearly a 2x's turnover of all shares.
RJ has consistently followed what we have all known but conveniently forgotten this is a 3 year turn around and Year 1 is now in her words done - the business is now an arrow with 3 product types. Card, Leasing & BNPL. The next phase is growth - her last interview on ****** and Commsec Executive series (which may come at some cost ???) Early days but we can start to see the jobs being advertised, the products passing Beta testing...........and the power of the internet defying the virus. Places now will not take cash quite often - what a plus for products like Bundll no level of advertising spend can give that much of a leg up for free. Its going to all be about "EXECUTION"

So to wrap that all up - shorters I hope you have made buckets of money and are getting ready to reverse the direction of the share price because when the stars align and RJ hits the go button I hope you are on the right side of the trade.
Its all about faith in ones convictions - watching Afterpay, Sezzle, Zip with stratosphere PE's congratulations to all but be careful Lithium, Bitcoin, Tech bubble, debt management - the risks on seriously unprofitable businesses is danger personified.

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Really great post, thank you.

And I think you are bang on. The shorters are hanging in the balance on this one but steadfastly lingering like a bad smell, even though there are other stocks to short. So they are hanging around for another reason.

I also think FXL will have news. What also strikes me in this bubble world, is all the BNPL's that are built on nothing. No profit at all.

By contrast, FXL is built on 2.1 million genuine, AUS & NZ customers, genuine, rock solid profits and products, dividends, and an exec team with a huge vision for the future that will be built on solid foundations too. That is how they roll.

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(20min delay)
Last 72.5¢		Change 0.020(2.84%)		Mkt cap ! $356.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
68.5¢	73.5¢	66.5¢	$513.5K	729.1K

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