I think the Hartleys report openly available from the company website dated 31st August 2011 is fairly accurate of the company and should be relied upon more then a few disgruntled people...
Strong Production from Ukraine Continues Hawkley Oil and Gas Limited (?Hawkley?, ?HOG?, ?Company?) has reported another strong month of production from its 100% owned Sorochynska field, located onshore in the Ukraine. Production averaged 6.5 million cubic feet of gas per day with 220 barrels of condensate per day (July production 6.6mmcf/d and 230boc/d). Post VAT revenue was $2.5m (vs $2.6m in July). Cash remains steady at $13m as revenues offset overheads and costs related to the drilling of the Chernetska-1 well. Since February, the Sorochynska-201 well has now generated >$17m in post VAT revenue with a margin of ~45% (Hartleys estimate). We currently value the Sorochynska field (based on a 3 well development) at 45cps. This does not include potential value from the independently estimated contingent resource of 217 billion cubic feet of gas and 5.6 million barrels of condensate at the Sorochynska licence. Chernetska Drilling Could Add 20cps in Near Term Drilling at the Company?s Chernetska-1 well is on track to hit the primary oil target in the B20 horizon sometime in October. We had estimated that the primary target may be intersected several weeks earlier; however, drilling rates have slowed in the deeper, more complex sections. The well is updip from an historic well that flowed oil at 920 barrels per day before water influx. This updip location may hold as much as 5 million barrels of oil. We have modelled a more conservative case with recovery of 3.4 million barrels and estimate that this could add 20cps in value for Hawkley. The well may also be deepened to test several other horizons that are prospective for both oil and gas. These zones are considered more risky but also have much larger upside potential. The magnitude of the potential is indicated by independently estimated prospective and contingent resources of 378 billion cubic feet of gas and 15 million barrels of condensate at the Chernetska licence. Not Exploration, Cashflow Positive, >0.5tcf Resource All of Hawkley?s targets, upon which the resource estimates have been based, have been de-risked by discoveries made by State-run exploration companies during the Soviet era. Reservoir performance has been considered the main risk, which HOG has shown can be mitigated successfully at Sorochynska by using modern drilling and completion techniques. Sorochyska has delivered strong positive operating cashflow since February and payback on drilling costs is likely before the end of the year, with another 8 years of production expected. In addition, at least two development wells are likely over the next 18 months, which should deliver significant production and revenue uplifts. Drilling at Chernetska is likely to deliver production from the B20 oil bearing horizon (we estimate >75% chance of success) and may also test some of the >500 billion cubic feet of gas resource from deeper horizons. The Company is also likely to have high impact appraisal drilling in 2012 in addition to development wells at Sorochynska. Hawkley is cashflow positive with development upside, has large appraisal upside potential and several near term positive catalysts. We rate Hawkley Oil and Gas Ltd as a Buy with a price target of 63cps.
HOG Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held