I just re-listened to the November 28 conference call.
The statement that was made was that "we hope to have an announcement before Christmas."
He did not say we will have a signed contract before Christmas.
It was estimated that the revenue from a single airline could be in the vicinity of $15-$18 million based on the lost opportunity cost of making $150,000 per day per aircraft. Aircraft could be grounded for current methods of checking for up to 3 days per year even if no stress cracking is found. Currently, a certain amount of damage is done to the aircraft when parts of the aircraft are dismantled for visual inspection & then reinstalled.
If we take, what would appear to be a conservative approach & say that each airline brings in, on average, a $10 million profit to SMS then if only ten airlines of significant size, or the equivalent, then you will have an annual profit of about $100 million which equates to about $1.00 profit per share as there are about 100 million shares on issue.
If, based on a Price/Ernings of 15 then the share price should be $15.00.
Now imagine fixed wing aircraft, military aircraft & more than 10 airlines using SMS technology plus the possibility of the technology being used on bridges, of which there are many in bad need of repair & numerous other areas where stress cracking occurs then you have a potential share price rising to well over $20.00 per share.
Makes the mind boggle.
Does anyone think I am overly optimistic?
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