dollar vlaue of cld at 11000 tonne p/a, page-13

Cafa
“If REE prices start an uptrend, then LYC could be rather profitable, but if they stay at $28 then that is not so good for the SP, and any further price destruction could be a serious matter for the profitability of LYC in the 2014 year.”
I respectively do not buy into that at all. Also question why your predictions on Lynas’ profitability is based solely on current basket price. You are suggesting that ‘if REE prices start an uptrend, then LYC could be rather profitable”, not profitable if prices stabilize or go even lower? Are you suggesting and certain you know the business operations of Lynas better than they do, when CEO remains confident about profit. Lynas, whose product and contract agreements are client specific, pricing built in (deemed profitable by management) would need to wait for an uptrend in REE prices? I disagree. And if “ $28 not so good” why is Lynas more than satisfied with basket price at much lower levels? Of course prices remain down significantly from the same time last year. This may be significant to other miners or operations, has nothing to do with Lynas. Yes, can’t compare apples to oranges here. Lynas has contracted out much of Ph1 and Ph2 before 2010 pricing went out of wack. Lynas having stated for a good eight years, their satisfaction with prices/product.
What is significant in terms of business for Lynas is profitability from what THEY deem reasonable pricing, not something conjured up by merely guessing. I’m confident management is fully aware at what price for what product, and for what customer will be deemed PROFITABLE.
CEO Eric Noyrez said “Operations remain profitable despite falling rare earth prices. The Lynas project has been a long time in the making, and was formally initiated in 2005. Prices then were NOT AT THE CURRNT LEVEL EITHER. We expect our operations to be PROFITABLE, he added.
Jack Lifton said “Lynas told me that the LAMP will be profitable even if the prices of the rare earths decline beyond current levels, because it was designed to be profitable in the 2009 price period. I believe that, and I wish them good luck in their Malaysian operations.”
When you declare “any further price destruction could be a serious matter for the profitability of LYC in the 2014 year”, I understand this is just your opinion and it is not based on facts, only guestimates and will take it as such. However, as negative you post, you’re entitled to your predictions.