He also forgot Freeport lng in Texas which has started construction.
Although the essential point Kramer was making was that with the recent fall in oil and therefore oil linked lng prices he doesn't expect there to be the 15 to 20 lng projects that was previously estimated in the US to go ahead which is in line with what a lot of industry analysts are saying. Therefor he expects long term US gas prices to remain low without this export demand and to boost U.S. manufacturing. Which is all logical to me. To see what export lng demand can do to domestic gas pricing all one needs to do is look at the east coast of Australia.
I think however this goes to show one of the key advantages to maggy being slated in the first five us projects to get to production which was a key attraction to the stock. Seeing other US projects not getting to FID or being delayed means tolling partners are left with only so many projects they can partner with. More importantly it would also give them more comfort that US domestic gas prices won't be subject to an export led rise which would wipe out the arbitrage profit they make by selling at the higher world gas price. Overlaying this with the lower capex and opex advantage that means maggy can be competitive with pricing shows why we have term sheets for 7mtpa already. With most things in business these threats to the general US lng sector are opportunities for the first movers.
All this is very supportive I think of those BTAs being signed.
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