I don't think it's a total slamdunk yet, as the fate of this very low bid, rests in the hands of 3-4 large institutions and to a lesser extent, the hands of those brave souls that are smaller investors (thinking like HK protesters, that aren't prepared to roll over, when a multi bag exists in a few years (admittedly after a large equity raising), as this Company enters the ranks of copper producer's with cashflow, earnings and the holy grail, dividends). I think they call that medium/long term investing, don't they, versus daylight robbery now into scrip from a one mine company, running out of ore reserves? No thanks at 45cps.
If SFR don't execute this transaction they have a looming cliff edge not many years away, look like losers that can't execute, and few other quality copper targets, and the real question is who blinks first, Karl or those institutions? A >25% vote against the Scheme on the approx. 89.5% eligible shares to vote (assuming SFR remain at 10.5%), sends SFR packing, now i expect some indication fromAustSuper, NS/MUFJ, CS as to their intetnions will be known by Karl by now, so not long to wait, for an improved offer. I wouldn't be holding out for another competing bid, as it's a long shot, after the due diliigence period earlier this year, but SFR seriously might need to sharpen their pencil or miss out. SFR find out after the close tomorrow (19th September) how many investors want cash, so that's their indication as to what revised structure and price is needed to get this deal done.
So consider this - if the deal gets voted down, do you think Karl won't be back with a higher offer, or more pertinently, do you think he'd let that happen without providing a ratchet to 50cps soon? I've made my decison, Vote against this deal. Incodentally, my model shows MOD on a PER of between 3-5x on its earnings when fully commissioned in the early years of the 2020's. Hold your nerve, do a Ben Stokes !!!
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