Good questions and answers @DrS777Below are my thoughts on your...

Good questions and answers @DrS777

Below are my thoughts on your questions:

Too early to tip a $10xmas just yet?

It depends on how much confidence one has in the Company's FY24 revenue guidance of $78.5M - $84.5M.

If the company looks like it will deliver on their FY24 revenue guidance (which includes GO approval/launch/revenue, VAC approvals), I think AVH $10 by Christmas is achievable.

As I have previously mentioned, the share price works out to be about RCEL $29 or AVH $8.80, based on a price to sales ratio of 9.2x (5-year average for ASX biotech) and $81.5M midpoint for FY24 revenue. It would take a P/S ratio around 10.5x to reach AVH $10. The implied growth rates should increase investor confidence sufficiently enough to value the company higher than the average, see a scenario below for a guide on growth rates.

		Mar-24	Jun-24	Sep-24	Dec-24	FY24
1	Revenue (USD)	$15.4M	$17.8M	$21.6M	$26.7M	$81.5M
2	Growth (mrq)	9%	16%	21%	24%
3	Growth (pcp)	47%	52%	59%	89%	64%

I'm hopeful that we'll get details on Q1 and Q2 revenue this week which will provide further clarity.

Where will the SP be in 12 months? Post profitability?

We've been told the revenue growth rate is expected to be >50% YoY for at least 3 years.

If $81.5M is achieved in FY24, $122M+ should be expected in FY25. The share price, based on the 5 year average P/S ratio of 9.2x and $122M revenue, works out to be around AVH $13. I'd be more ambitious than this with a full year with GO, FTSD, salesforce expansion, international expansion, additional products and the company being profitable.

It should be noted that the average P/S ratio for an ASX biotech company is currently around 6.5x which equates to around AVH $6.20 for FY24 ($81.5M), and AVH $9.25 for FY25 ($122M). I think the company will be rated above average though.