An interesting insight into investing from an article about the...

An interesting insight into investing from an article about the world's most successful investors by Anthony Keane in The Australian this morning:

"Bill Miller bought 15 per cent of Amazon after the stock tumbled from $90 to $6 and looked headed for the scrap heap. He has studied philosophy and reasoned that there was a 50-50 chance Amazon would go to zero, but if he was right it would make 50 times his money. He made the money."

An understanding of probabilities is very helpful for successful investors. This certainly applies to Avita. What is the probability of failure for Avita now that it has approvals for Burns, FTSD, Vitiligo and the ease-of-use device? My view is that it is less than 20% even if Recell Go does not get approved next year. The current high growth rates are occurring without Recell Go.

Then we should ask, what is the upside if Avita succeeds in taking a significant slice of the TAM over the next decade for each approved indication and in several major markets, including USA, Japan, Europe, Canada, Australia?

I am very comfortable with the current probability profile.