Historically, markets tank when the fed initially drops rates, yet everyone is buying into the potential rate cut. When the fed drops rates, it’s because they realize that economic conditions are dismal, and that realization is what brings down markets due to reduced earnings, which you can expect going forward. There’s a long lag before people feel the economic impact of higher rates and Fed balance sheet reductions. Hard landing likely imo.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
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