I can summary my bets in a single equation:
Market Cap = SAM (US$ 2.7bn) x Market Share (?) x Probability of Success (?) x P/S (~5)
Market Share is debatable... in absence of competition, should it be close to 100%?
Probability of Success is weighted by the market everyday - obviously things like FDA approval expected in May and/or increase in sales growth will indicate lower risk of failure i.e. higher probability of success
With the current market cap of ~0.5bn, market is pricing very low market share and low probability of success, any positive change to sentiments may lead to multiple from where we are now...
Don't consider selling before profitability, page-222
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Last
$2.71 |
Change
-0.250(8.45%) |
Mkt cap ! $168.5M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $2.78 | $2.83 | $2.71 | $2.015M | 728.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3071 | $2.71 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $2.73 | 1874 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 09/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$2.72 |
Change
-0.250 ( 8.30 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $2.79 | $2.83 | $2.71 | 12865 | ||
| Last updated 15.57pm 09/05/2024 ? | |||||
| AVH (ASX) Chart |