Must admire the swelling number of posts in the XJO thread in these down times.
The thread has grown prodigiously.
And religiously.
Sententiously and pretentiously too.
My turn!
Yearly Highs and Lows.
Looking at the big picture, we are getting into a turning point zone - an area from which the XJO might recover. HOWEVER, these turning points tend to cluster. Expect more tests.
The green dotted line in the lower pane is the level of the summation line, the red line is the yearly lows level.
Note how many of these clusters occur at this time of year. There appears to be a seasonaility in the Hi Lo summation at this time of year.
Candles.
It's a big red candle. ;-)))
More insightful perhaps, might be the size of the move. The chart below shows the size of the Close to Close move in the XJO. Drawn in the red line so that the comparison is easier.
The takeaway observations here are that:
- this sort of stuff happens around June about 75% of the time. (We missed out last year)
- this cluster seems to be more sustained than some of the previous years...ie the incidence of the large % moves seems to be cover a longer duration, starting late 2014 - seemingly more sustained that other clusters.
So there seems some seasonaility in the size of the moves, but with exogenous catalysts, such as Greece or China, this could be exaggerated compared to other similar events.
If you think about outliers in the volatility, and the higher volatility we are experiencing now, then we haven't had that high standard deviation event....yet. I would expect an outlier much larger than todays current 2% move before the market tries to rise again.
Here's one for you @Jako64
Recognise the character??
On a slightly different note. (Conspiracy theory here.) I can't help but think that Greece is being used as somebody's catspaw. They were admitted to the EU with the loophole finding help of GS (loophole now closed). GS did well out of that. Wish I knew where the money was going on this one.
Think of the whole setup of the PIIGS "branding" - which I believe was GS too. Sort of creates something for people to sneer at, laugh at, feel superior about.
Consider if the PIIGS brand was established as GIPSI instead? A certain wayward nature with the prospect of some fun. Hardly the imagery that PIIGS evokes. It's a different world then innit?
Sigh, I could go on forever.
Homework assignment.
In the Greek crisis,
Who are the Gypsies?
Who are the Theives?
Who will be the Tramps?
(20min delay)