If all continues to progress, at some point the potential future...

If all continues to progress, at some point the potential future will start to be priced in:

There will be more shares on issue next week but accounting for full subscription SOI will be 985,063,013. Using rough numbers based from PEA...


AGY:
77.5% owned currently. (Will move to 90% in consideration for funding Stage 3).
985,063,013 shares on issue.

Assumptions:
Operating Expenses approx: (US$4,645 per tonne for 10ktpa) & (US$4,309 per tonne for 15ktpa) – without by-credits
Lithium price: (US$13,000 per tonne)
Exchange rate: (AUD$1 = US$0.72)


Stage 3 based on 10,000 tpa:
Revenue: (US$130 million p/a)
minus:
Operating Expenses: (US$46.45 million p/a)
equals:
Profit before tax: (US$83.55 million p/a)
Profit after tax: (US$58.49 million p/a)

Company Valuation: (using PE ratio of 10)
Profit x PE ratio = (AUD$812,361,111)
90% ownership = (AUD$731,125,000)
Divided by 985,063,013 (shares on issue) = $0.74

Based on 10,000 tpa Stage 3, gaining funding and with no further shares issued:
AGY Target Share Price: $0.74


Stage 3 based on 15,000 tpa:
Revenue: (US$195 million p/a)
minus:
Operating Expenses: (US$64.64 million p/a)
equals:
Profit before tax: (US$130.36 million p/a)
Profit after tax: (US$91.25 million p/a)

Company Valuation: (using PE ratio of 10)
Profit x PE ratio = (AUD$1,267,388,888)
90% ownership = (AUD$1,140,649,999)
Divided by 985,063,013 (shares on issue) = $ 1.16

Based on 15,000 tpa Stage 3, gaining funding and with no further shares issued:
AGY Target Share Price: $1.16


This is using US$13,000 per tonne also. The 3 month av spot price of FOB South America was $15,500 at time of PEA. And tax rate is reducing to 25% from 1st Jan 2020. Royalties at 3% so will just leave tax rate at 30% for calcs.

Go through and check the numbers if you like and lets have an objective discussion.