Have tried to work out why people do things sometimes too but usually just drives me a bit mader - got no idea why people do what they do sometimes. Usually happy to just try to figure out what the most likely play is at the moment and can I make use of it or at least protect myself from it. Maybe you sell out - perhaps you hedge your longs by shorting cfd's maybe ya just turn the computer off and go to the pub.
Can't say I saw the 324,414 for sale at a buck on close as someone paying a broker to deliberatly sell at multi year low. I can't help thinking it just might be a signal.
We've had a lot of shares change hands since the qtly was released - over 10 million of them. Once the the gut wrenching panic selling (no doubt assisted by shorters spooking us) settled a bit there were a number of days where once the opening price settled - a bit of a squiggly line was drawn and we seemed to have a lot of shares change hands in a fairly orderly manner within a few cents of that line.
Some days the line was so clear even I could see it and use it by dumping a wad of shorts on the top side of the line and buying them back and hour or two later on the other side. Ok - OK I was only making drinking money - but geezus I been drinking abit the last week or so lol and if I do it another 995 times I might even break even lol
As said - over 10 million since the qtly and a fair wad of them have changed hands in something of an orderly manner - makes me think maybe a large holder drew a line in the sand and said to his broker if she crosses that get me out at anything over a buck. We.ve had over 10 million go thru at an average of about $1.16 - not all one bloke of course - lots of people got washed overboard in the frey as well. Others shorted it and have since moved on. Others bought in and waiting for a maybe $1.50 before they find another one.
So what was the 324,414 for sale at $1.00 neat on close - a dill selling at multi year lows or a broker throwing a news flash up to say to his mates - he's only got 324,414 left - if you want em match me up now or give me a ring and we'll do it off market.
To b honest I dont know the real answer but have seen similar news flashes on this stock in the past and seen someone step up and match it out within a day or so.
If a substantial holder with more than 5% he prob have to disclose but we have had a few ceasing to be substantial holder notices this year - that dont mean they dont hold any more - it means they have less than 5% - whats that - 5 or 6 million. Considering the amount of stock that has changed hands - in something of an orerly manner once the panic settled - there'd be room for one of them to let the rest out and if you wanted to buy - you just put a buy in around a buck and you got it - likewise if you wanted to sell - you put the sell in around that price and got it.
Been able to buy easy around a buck coz a lot has been available around a buck so if it was a news flash saying I only got 300k left what happens when supply dries up - do the buyers dry up too?
I remember when GT bless his benevolent heart sold 5 or 6 million to buy buckingham palace - he drove us down a buck - but when the supply dired up - the buyers were still there - and they bought us all the way back up.
I don't think the insider selling pre production makes holds much water. Any insider worth his salt would have had word of last cost blow out and delay well before Benevolent Mal's loan affair surfaced - and surely he'd have been out well before the resource downgrade -nah I don't see an insider in this story
Don't think its HNC either - and no reason to suggest they want to pull out. Corporate wise they have done everything they ahve been asked to do. Moreover, from the sounds of it they had the chance to withdraw from the deal when the stamp duty was not finalised by end of March - but they didn't.
As posted previously, a mate who has a contact on site says the Chinese have been over here and on site heaps the last few months - probably got sick of watching these buffoons trying to put the mechano set together but from all reports they still seem as keen as mustard - and from earlier word they were not initially upset by delays because they thought the time frames were overly opimistic anyway. But the word around the lunch room is they have half a billon sitting in a US account waiting for sulphides go ahead (but know full well they will be looking at well over a billion to build it)
Anyway - didn't we hear at the AGM that they were testing the water on T/O idea back in March when we were around $1.50 - so no - I don't thik its HNC selling - unless its to try to smash the price as low as they can to make a T/O bid look more attractive and acceptable - if thats their aim - they probably acheived it lol
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
