Snouty...I fear the mechanics here are just far too complex for...

Snouty...

I fear the mechanics here are just far too complex for the average retailer to grasp...indeed, I suspect even most seasoned players would have trouble following Smyth's lead here.

I have looked in detail...and suspect I still have only part of the story nutted out.

Doubt exists in the market...rightly or wrongly...that we will end up with real assets...and the ongoing series of placements, with the obligatory disclaimer "...may be subject to a subsequent offer for sale." which in light of a plunging share price hardly enforces an air of confidence.

The plane has been stuck in the mother of all storms ever since it reached cruising altitude in the mid 30's...and the problem faced with passengers in such turbulance skies, is the fear of the unkown,

Given we have been circling...and circling...all the while losing altitude. Given we have also watched on as many of our fellow passengers, some from first class no less, have deployted their chutes and bailed out long ago.

So why are we circling...are we out of fuel...have the engines blown...or worse, have we been hijacked?

I suggest if Smyth is genuine about keeping the passengers seated, he really needs to tell us all exactly what every noise was, explain any suddenly cause of altitude loss...and in particular, he needs to enforce what our back up strategy might be should the plane go down.

North Matanda, Fortitude, Diamonds, Kwanza Basin...individually each is capable of not only supporting, but increasing the current market cap.

So why aren't they?

He needs to give the market at least one definative project...signed, sealed and delivered.

On the 18th Jan the stock had bottomed and was technically looking to a run to 27c...instead, from the morning of the 21st (next trading day after the crash), we have been on a downward spiral, with every day a black day typified by late afternoon selling which pushes for a close below the daily VWAP.

These are accumulation related trading pattern, where the stock is puposelt sold down to establish a lower trading range each subsequent day...the view of course to load up from previous sales, or indeed new buys at lower levels to replace short sold stock...or indeed, price manipulation to facilitate lower placement issue prices.

We have had plenty of those.

I am not sure Smyth has anything to do with this...in fact I feel quite confident he doesn't...but that does not mean there are not others effectively forcing the situation, which in trun forces Smyth's hand.

So why are we circling?

Catabola drilling...more delays here it seems, as we saw previously (which by the way was partly the catalyst for the start of the first sell-down).

So...are there problems at Catabola, or is it being held of as part of the negotiating process for the Kwanza concessions? I actually feel this is the case, just as the fiurst "delay" was likely to facilitae it's inclusion in Fortitude. If so, I guess some might read a commencement at Catabola as a clear sign the Kwanza deal has been completed.

In spite of my frustrations, I bought more today with profits from MEO and CNP...all or nothing.

For what it's worth, the Weekly chart looks like a buy trigger forming, with weekly trading ranges diminishing. It is one of the things I look for, but may not be what excites others.

Cheers!