A2M 1.28% $6.73 the a2 milk company limited

DON'T PANIC A2 HOLDERS, YOU ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN MOST, page-321

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    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2996/2996322-e4bf2dbe6256e7f23ec76c67a0668b26.jpg
    found this in Melbourne today (12/3) on Elizabeth street.
    Boxes of A2m formula at a Chinese store (price labels were in Chinese). I like this company as a long term play. But... management in their hy indicates that they expected significant growth for q4 over q3 by taking steps to reinvigorate the daigou (Peter Nathan also explains plan in investor call). But the treatment of inventory in their balance sheet (which kinda contradicted their claim that they did not have an inventory problem) suggests there are stockpiles in these kinds of places and elsewhere that may cause a backlog even if they manage to improve daigou sales. And Peter Nathan has no idea how big this is. They say they can improve for q4 but they have no idea how much inventory sits in stacks like this (trying to collect data on it now... too late because it is after their hy guidance) and idk how they think they can make forecasts that hinge intensely on the daigou recovery with a gaping unknown right here. Why risk it? I would think their inventory issue would last longer than just 1 quarter and I’m not sure the 23 million provision cuts it.
    Imo it’s somewhat of a timing issue, they need to clear inventory and sell new product before efy or they won’t manage the revenue growth they may be expecting for q4 to meet guidance. Doesn’t mean I think there’s anything wrong with the business, just their guidance. If they miss guidance again... lol people will be so angry. Im doubting they will hit guidance which is measured to an arbitrary date based on what has happened in past months. Can they deliver in time is the question here imo. gltah.
    Last edited by bigdtrades: 13/03/21
 
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