MonkeyDexThere are far smarter people than me with a better...

MonkeyDex

There are far smarter people than me with a better handle on commodity prices.

When BHP was at its peak, I suggested that commodity price falls were the only reason I could imagine for the decline that seemed inevitable, but stressed that my analysis was technical and hunting fundamentals just a guess. It looks like that in part and the global economy to boot.

I am not a serious student of commodity prices and so it was a best guess only.

James Flanagan and his GannGlobal site and subscription is a place I would highly recommend for those with a commodity bent.

Bob Hoye from Canada and his more general market/commodity approach is another I highly respect.

As for the bailout, it doesn't remind me of any important low I have seen.

Lows tend to be a wearing down affair and if at the end you can get a final capitulation day then a great sign.

It doesn't apply here but the other great low scenario is the war one.

Talk of war is debilitating to the markets and when hostilities commence, that is usually the low. I wonder if an analogy can be made here somehow.

I fell into the mistake once of thinking the obvious wouldn't repeat.

I presumed a repeated scenario would have to be different because people would have learned, but failed to take into account the number of new participants that were actually reacting for their first time.

So treat the other investors as ignorant and you will probably be correct.

You can't go wrong under estimating the intelligence of the general public, was a statement made regarding television viewing, but applies to the investing public.

I don't say that to be pompous, because as I mention, I in fact initially expected behaviour to have changed, but it seems it doesn't, at least from my observations.