Interesting angle. Makes a lot of sense. So many dead cats on...

Interesting angle. Makes a lot of sense.
So many dead cats on tables in the geo-political landscape (whataboutism).

The only thing about the vax is that Sino (vax) and the Russian vax (and Astra Zeneca) are not very effective against these new variants like Delta and Omicron.
For Astra Zeneca - it's part of the reason that states like NSW, QLD, SA, and now WA have been hit so hard by Omicron. VIC has also been hit (had a persistent Delta wave), but there has been a higher level of mask adoption and community awareness, after 2020.

So behind the scenes, it would not surprise me if the US may be quietly doing deals with China on things like Vaccine technology, while China is thinking "do we need expensive ($42 barrel plus cost of extraction) Russian oil?"

China must also be thinking and re-evaluating "What is the point of Putin or Russia?"

Tech is winning this war. Those Turkish Bayraktar drones are devastating, but very few were delivered of the Ukrainian order before the invasion. The Ukrainian army have a remote controlled anti tank weapon that can be fired at a far longer range than the Javelin, leaving their crew almost undetectable.
The Javelin is also crucial for it's night vision capabilities.
The Russians are lagging, almost fighting a war on terms that are of a different era.

The only real deficit is Ukraine's air force, without access to the most modern platforms or current air to air tech. It is Battle of Britain stuff - without the Spitfires (there were far more Hurricanes in 1940 - myth overwriting history).
Ukrainian ground based anti air defences are providing more protection than the Airforce, but also not enough to prevent attacks on civilian targets.

Oil prices will remain high for some time, longer if there is a stalemate in the Russia Ukraine war. There just is a dramatic shortfall in minerals in the EV space for batteries and powertrain like NdPr magnets, for the rapid rollout of EV's.
Nickel is one of the main Russian exports in this EV minerals space.