good to see a response from you, Tobago, and I'm prepared to...

good to see a response from you, Tobago, and I'm prepared to accept that you're not just downramping but have just outlined some concerns;

by the way, it was merck's VACCINE that failed, not it's new drug, raltegravir, which I do agree is a breakthrough in HIV treatment and a very useful addition to HIV treatment...
again, a second line drug that must be used in combination with other HIV drugs, the same as apricitabine, the same as every HIV drug.

In fact, in time most patients with HIV will need to go on to second line regimens as they fail their initial treatment due to resistance emerging, so this is not really a valid point against either apricitabine or raltegravir.

If we look at the treatment of bacterial infections historically we had a great breakthrough with the introduction of penicillin. Eventually, however, bacteria became resistant to penicillin so the search was on for new antibiotics. Drugs like chloramphenicol and streptomycin were hailed as huge advances, using novel mechanisms to destroy resistant bacteria.

However, the true blockbuster of the era would have to be Amoxycillin. It is still, today, one of the highest selling antibiotics. It is in the same class of antibiotic as penicillin, like apricitabine is in the same class as the first effective HIV drugs, the NRTI's. However, amoxycillin ended up much more effective than penicillin and much less likely to have resistance develop.

Unlike streptomycin and chloramphenicol, amoxycillin has very few side effects, just like penicillin.

Amoxycillin has outsold the others at least 10-100 fold over time.

It is often a new drug in an established class that becomes the true blockbuster rather than a new drug in a novel class.

With the very low side efect profile of apricitabine, and increasing rates of resistance even in new infections, there is every chance that, in time, apricitabine will be a front line HIV drug.

I would concur with most analysts that, at present, the valuation of AVX shares is well above a dollar. With further progress valuation will increase.