Yes , it's from the RIV so of course you have to allow for bias. That said , you have to give the numbers some respect.
From today's Herald Sun :
MELBOURNE'S home owners are in for a great Christmas gift, with the property market tipped to be back to peak values by then.
A major bank and industry experts, buoyed by the current housing recovery, are even holding strong hopes of a new high in prices in the New Year.
Latest property data, including the Commonwealth Bank-RP Data Home Buyers Index, suggests Melbourne's market is heading back in favour of sellers.
Real Estate Institute of Victoria spokesman Robert Larocca said: "On the current trajectory, the market has recovered ... we are pretty much there now ... and if we see another quarter like we have just seen, Melbourne will be at a new peak very soon."
The current median price of $512,000, for houses and units, needs to rise just 6.6 per cent to $545,800 to complete a full recovery, according to the latest research from RP Data.
RP Data director Tim Lawless confirmed: "It's not going to happen in the next couple of months, but by the year's end we should see Melbourne moving through that mark and potentially going through it."
Houses will need to gain $38,700 or 6.9 per cent on top of their current $561,000 median to reach a new peak value of $599,700.
Units, currently at $446,000, are a more modest $21,854 or 4.9 per cent short of their peak.
The Commonwealth Bank-RP Data Home Buyers Index notes a rise in the number of home loan applications compared with properties listed for sale, hinting there is less room for home buyers to negotiate on prices, particularly in outer Melbourne.
Fringe suburbs like Epping, Cranbourne and Melton top the list, meaning those looking to buy in the more affordable areas of the market will struggle to succeed with lower offers as the demand rises.
The improvement in selling conditions combined with interest rates remaining steady or being cut on August 6, and consumer confidence and the job market remaining reasonably steady, should deliver this extra Christmas present for homeowners.
Mr Lawless says despite recent job cuts across Victoria, Melbourne's diverse economy will shelter the market from the workforce losses in manufacturing.
"The labour force is going to be softening, but at least Melbourne doesn't have as much exposure to resources like Perth and Darwin," he said.
Early signs indicate Melbourne will have had a 2.5 per cent growth in values over the month of July, Mr Lawless said.
Monique Wakelin of Wakelin Property Advisory said: "A full market recovery by the end of the year wouldn't surprise me."
However, she cautioned Melbourne was not yet in a seller's market.
"We're more in a balanced market now," Ms Wakelin said.
"In winter there's usually a shortage of supply and it could be construed that the lever is shifting (to sellers)."
But Clive van Horen of the Commonwealth Bank said the historically low interest rates and increasingly competitive market would make spring interesting.
"My advice for anyone looking to purchase a property over the coming months is to arm yourself with information," he said.
"Do your research on prospective properties and trends in your target area."
The most recent REIV figures are seasonally adjusted and take in a slightly narrower set of regions than the Commonwealth-RP Data figures. \
The calculated peak figures account for changes in inflation and the value of the dollar.
For those looking to buy right now, there will be some 570 auctions this weekend.
