doomed n gloom, page-41

I believe we may see the shorters use today's big fall in IO price to close out their shorts (sucking up all weary sellers), and may even swap sides to long positions (given how successful they've been in pushing it down).

Just my humble opinion - but think we're at or close to the turning point.

While their USD debt load is high, it is naturally hedged by fact most of their revenue (Molycorp profit engine) is spitting out USD revenue, is market leader in most segments, and is volume based (mining consumables - grinding media) rather than purely commodity price based. (Of course there will be a flow over effect on volumes over time, but most mines who have already invested heavily in mining infrastructure have no real choice but to keep mining & generate whatever cashflow they can once their capital is invested).

Should see a significant improvement in Steel business this half with lower AUD & strong domestic construction activity, and further non-core asset sales along the way to help reduce debt.

Stock has been treated too much like a pure play Iron Ore business - which is ludicrous given its relative share of the overall business. Few last closure costs (already flagged) for second Iron Ore Operations but even if they just break even on remaining Iron Ore operations or gradually scale down in years ahead, it will remain relatively insignificant in overall business operations. Molycorp is the big game in town and continues to perform strongly.

I believe traders & long term investors morale has been slowly bled by the absence of more conservative insto investors (will wait until see some runs on board before coming back in, even if have to pay more for certainty), and heavy algo activity exploiting more predictable retail traders typical stop-loss setups & investors' behaviour. God knows I've got hardly any hair left on my head!! (and what's left is nearly all grey, or should I say Allan Gray..?)

To all those long investors still on board bleeding & wailing in the ring - respect to you & fingers crossed we're finally going to see a changing of the wind!!!