"How Will they Fund Dorado Development"I am interested in the better informed opinion on HC, but I will document my initial thoughts.
FID due mid-2022. Funding needs to be in place (or at least "in principle") to take FID.
How Much? Cost is USD$2B; CVN share USD$400M or AUD$555.
They have some cash AUD$90M, but they need to fund drilling (Parvo; Apus; Other?), running the business until Dorado cashflow in 2025(?). That may leave USD$40M cash for Dorado.
They need to fund at least USD$360M. My back of the envelope guesstimate of finance would be in the order of USD$250M (2C at USD$8) That translates to an additional USD$110M or AUD$150M
Options
raise new capital (placement, rights, SPP). Placement plus SPP would be my guess.
and/or partial sell down of Dorado
other?
When will they do a Capital Raise if that is part of the mix?They have 3 options
Prior to Apus and Parvo result. Most sizzle to attract new money. Most likely, or least the most prudent.
After Apus (the most sizzle; largest 2C (net 40 and risked 17.6); lowest COS at 23%; and before Parvo smaller 2c net 19, risked 10.3, COS 34%. Some sizzle, but share price will be higher or lower to reflect Apus result. Roll the once dice. Unlikely IMO, but possible.
After both results are known. Unlikely due to risk of two dusters being just over 50%.
At What Price in the pre-Apus Parvo case (the most likely IMO - but I have been wrong many times before).It would have to be at at least a 10% discount to the prevailing price. That would translate to around $0.24 based on current price. If the share price kicks higher in the coming days, it could be a bit higher, but for this exercise, I will use $0.24.
To raise the above "guesstimated" AUD$150m would result in an additional 625m shares (approximately 40% of current shares on issue, and approximately 28.5% of shares on issue after placement).
My Guess!Placement and SPP of 625m shares at $0.24 to raise AUD$150M/USD$110M, and USD$250 finance.
I am very interested in the views of others.
My sentiment is "Wait" (for funding clarity) rather than "None". Even filled out a Buy Order on Friday at $0.25 , but didn't submit - too far out of the money
CVN Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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, but didn't submit - too far out of the money
(20min delay)