dore duster, page-12

IMO many are missing the point about TIOF.

Tiof WILL happen, and eventually probably recover several hundred million barrels, at very margins - similiar to Chinquetti.

Sure the technical, the geology is more challenging, but IMO that is not the main factor holding the FID back.

The FID date has to be timed to fit the "cost oil" profile from Chinquetti. CAPEX for TIOF has to come from Chinq cost oil, that is the most "JV favourable" way. But first past Chinq costs need to be recovered. By my reckoning at USD60/bbl the JV will be ready to sink big money into TIOF in H2 07, and if they don't, then much of it will go to "profit oil" and 55% of this to the Govt.

This tells me the TIOF FID will be mid 07 (ie concurs with timing suggested by Simon). The technical boys will simply be told that is their deadline for getting the right concept with cost/risk balance.

When TIOF gets gets the go-ahead, with oil gushing out of Chinq, the HDR shareprice has a lot of catching up with peers and the XEJ. IMO the current shareprice has largely written TIOF off.

And I agree with Hardano, that investors have been holding off until all the "bad news drills" are over. Why else the quick rise after a dry hole.

A lot of potential +ve announcements looming, but not much likely looming on the "bad news" front.

Just my opinions,
Entropylord.