Doryx 200mg, page-2

Hi All,

Keeping my eye on this one. Thoughts so far (real back of the envelope stuff, don’t get too hung up on the numbers):

1. PE looks relatively high on historical earnings
2. Estimate ex-Doryx EBIT to be around $30M p.a (based on H215 results)
2. Doryx contributions of US$2.7M EBIT per month = AUD$35M
4. Good chance of organic growth from existing products both in US and in new markets (overseas)
5. Any additional sales/distribution channels could add significant value
6. Plenty (17?) of generic products in development or awaiting approval
7. With points 2 and 3, PE is more like 10-15X. Doesn't factor in much future growth at that level
8. Majority of sales would be in USD and thus benefits from a falling AUD

So in summary, could quite easily double from here on significant good news...

Thoughts? Too optimistic or missing something?

Cheers