double bottom?, page-6

No double bottom as far as I can tell.

Regarding a price target, I'm not a chartist, just an old-fashioned value investor. But I would've thought that regardless of which way you lean, you'd be looking at an SP target somewhere north of $2.

Chartist: $2 +
In early-2006 and mid-2007, the SP briefly broke through the $2 mark when the market got excited about the possibility of profits sometime in the future. Now, with near-term profits effectively locked in, you'd think the SP would sail past $2 without breaking a sweat.

Value investor: $6 +
In October last year, Richard told us that Tata would commit to scale-up sometime in the following 6 months. Check. He also told us that initial scale-up production volume would be 4M sqm and DYE expected revenues of $50/sqm. A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, which assumes profits are 30% of revenues and the PE ratio is 15, gives a SP of $6.29.

Of course, this ignores start-up costs. But it also ignores Tata's plans to ramp up to 40M sqm by 2016, the Pilkington project, and any other revenue in the pipeline - considerable upsides.

And imo, it ignores a big X factor. Blue sky revenue potential, feel-good environmental credentials, endorsement from big names such as BMW and Sony - DYE could be a market darling in the making. If this happens, all SP bets are off.

Just my opinion. Please check the figures.