Hope you don't mind some new discussion on this post. I always feel like a bit of an intruder when I walk in to a new room in chat space. I agree $44 is doable based on November 2010.
My analysis tells me we will get there in the near future (weeks) so I agree with you. It then pauses and builds up a head of steam before a launch to higher levels.
My macro view of the XGD and gold tells me we have one of three exciting scenario's coming up, can't tell which plays out until it is evolving. This could be as explosive as the August 2005 launch when the XGD ran from circa 2900 this time of year to 6900 by November 2007.
A few days back I said there was more downside yet, from below 39.40 and I have to wait for my signals and targets to be met, will report if anybody has interest. If I am right this mini bounce here has not marked the low yet either. This is very short term stuff - trading in and out over a few days catching the 5% moves but they add up. Sold trading parcel at 40.88 a few days back and still waiting to re-enter.
So I do agree with you Chuckey - and just discussing the shorter time frames. I think that 38.00 double was probably it; but have to wait myself for re-entry signals because I don't trade on my own sentiment.
I will post an article on the WWW tonight on the XGD analysis but have to give my clients time to adjust before I make it public. Interesting to see the views and comments in here guys - good discussion.
Talking with some pro's in here on this thread. DYOR, regards CW
NCM Price at posting:
$39.50 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
