double up to catch up, page-30

kmuirhead

look, it has been such a long time that watso did stats, and frankly i cannot recall much about it - and his might be all wrong, and watso simply cannot be bothered to check out his figures

it is true that what comes up next, is entirely independent of past behaviour. watso is more than happy to be told that he is wrong - however take the toss of a coin it has a 50:50 chance of being head or tails or a 1 in two chance of either heads or tails. the odds of a coin landing heads two times in a row, is one in four, and the odds of landing on heads three times is one in eight, and the chances of landing on heads 4 times in a row is one in 32 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32)

likewise the chances of four odds in a row, must be one in 32. likewise the chances of three reds in a row must be one in eight (damn it - just ignore the 0) so what are the chances of both a red and another odd turning up -- is it 1/32 x 1/8 = 1/256 ????? mmm it seems to happen quite often so watso's maths might be up shyte creek

anyway, watso finds it to be an ok system, and tends to loose a bit more slowly, as he waits for the sequence to turn up