Great post. Thank you.

First 1762 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Goldfarm

4,475 Posts.

277

23/04/24

07:25

Post #: 73467040
Share

Originally posted by Cashmeoutside: ↑

One thing worth considering is what is the underlying value of this company should Mali go to sht as some questionable sources have speculated... particularly given Syama is the lions share of value here...

The company had US$14m net cash position at 31-Dec... I think A$50m (US$30m) is possible 31-Mar-24. And given no hedgebook and good looking Q2 likely A$200m net cash at 30-Jun-24 (90koz @ US$1,000/oz margins plus A$50m price contingent payment from Ravenswood).

You then have the other Ravenswood payments... this is upwards of A$200m and a lot of that is triggered by a liquidation event (IPO, Sale) of the mine by EMR capital. To me you can almost bank this...

Then you have Mako remaining.. which should be doing 350koz over the next 3yrs at >US$1,000/oz margins... take off NCI, taxes and maybe that's A$400m.. with some upside around exploration/life extension.

You also have some investments in things like Guinea, Loncor etc but let's ignore and summarise as A$200m net cash 30-Jun + A$200m Ravenswood + A$400m Mako = A$800m or 38cps ex Syama.

And Syama is the where the bulk of the value lies for Resolute... and you're probably paying something like A$100m in the share price today for it... when at 250kozpa going to 400kozpa at stage 2 expansion for many, many years ... it's arguably worth well north of A$1.5bn in a "risk free" environment. Operating in Mali is not a "risk free" environment but the company has been there for many, many years and you're only paying 5c on the dollar here for it... upside > downside IMO.

Expand

Great post. Thank you.

RSG Price at posting: 42.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply