doubts about the china story, page-4

I do not disagree, YC, but merely wish to qualify that a Chinese recovery & sustainability IS possible for the Mid-term,IMO.
As recent as a few days ago, their projected growth for the next year was 9.5%. Crazy,eh? But their plan A is to bring about their growth via domestic consumption.Now, we can scoff at that, but remember that the US did just that.
US growth during the Bush era and some of the Clinton era was almost entirely due to domestic, housing-related (with a bit of sub-prime help,lol), and Wal-Mart related growth.
This worked until their corrupt lending and toxic financial practices pricked each bubble in turn & brought the whole "house of cards" crashing down.They did not have more than one inch of sound economic "backbone" - that one inch was the armament manufacturers and Haliburton. Their motor vehicle industry was already in decline well before the brown stuff hit. Yet the US grew, until the proverbial "bend in the end".
In China, the people have had a taste of "mini-capitalism" in recent years, despite their communist government.They hope for more. China can, or indeed must, spend some of their hoards of $US to maintain internal growth or face a serious revolt. And why not spend? The value of their $US is continually declining.Hence their hedging by means of stockpiling materials at low prices. Their exports have crashed & burnt, so these materials are obviously slated for domestic use. If the US could do it, they can as well.
But only for a limited time. If they dont find alternative export markets in that time, they will come to the same end as the US.
So our exports to China, although looking shakier, should still help to prop us up in the near to mid term.
Beyond that? like you said: "Too many questions...."

GZ