Doubts cast on ABARES forecast, as crop drenching continues By Will Ockenden
Wednesday, 08/12/2010
Farmers and crop analysis companies disagree with the nation's commodity forecaster on the size of Australia's grain crop.
Australian Crop Forecasters, owned by the New Zealand Stock Exchange, says the best case scenario is a downgrade in quality, and a minimal loss in volume.
ACF's Ron Storey says and the wheat haul will be between 24 and 25 million tonnes.
ABARES says it will be closer to 27 million tonnes.
Mr Storey says some crops have been abandoned in western NSW and central Victoria, and says the 60 to 80 millimetres of rain in parts of South Australia and Victoria overnight will be "devastating for farmers".
But he says the biggest issue is one of quality, rather than volume.
"There'll be a large crop on the east coast, but there'll be farmers who lose their entire crop - and that's a massive loss for them," he said.
Australia's peak grain grower organisation Grain Producers Australia says ABARES hasn't taken the wet weather into account for its projections.
GPA chairman Pete Mailler says the forecast was out of date before it was even released.
"It seriously underestimates the damage to the Australian winter crop from recent wet weather, in both quality and quantity," he said.
"ABARE does a great job in often difficult circumstances, but the reality is that the winter crop through Queensland, NSW, Victoria and, to a lesser extent at this stage, South Australia, has now been decimated."
Paul Morris, the acting executive director of ABARES, says the forecasts have taken the "known weather conditions up until Monday 6th December" into account.
"We will continue to monitor the situation over coming weeks as the harvest progresses," he says in a statement.
"We continue to get reports of very high yields when farmers can harvest their crops, and very little outright loss of crops."
"The main impact of the rain continues to be on the quality of the grain - with significant downgrading of wheat and barley to stockfeed."
More rainfall overnight
Meanwhile, western Victorian farmers are waiting to see what the weather will bring over the next few days.
"We're just waiting to see where the rains fallen, and what sort of effect it'll have on the river. We need to wait to see if it will be a major or minor flood," says Russell Amery, president of the Victorian Farmers Federation's grain group.
Mr Amery says he's had 190 millimetres of rain on his crop in the last two weeks, and some of his crops have been flooded.
"It's been too wet to get into the crop to have a look at the damage," he said.
"I'm still optimistic we'll get the crops off, but I'm not sure what the quality will be.
"I'm not sure if we'll get it off before Christmas, which means three weeks of possible further damage."
Worries about mental health
There are also concerns about farmers' mental health, as the possible loss of crops becomes apparent.
"People were so buoyant about the prospects of a good harvest, and now with the sort of devastation we're seeing it's a worry," Mr Amery said.
"We need to make sure our neighbours are okay. People are worried, but I haven't heard of anyone getting to the stage where they just walk away."
The Victorian Farmers Federation has also organised a phone hook-up between farmers and the Victorian State Government, to keep politicians updated on the situation.
