Doubts emerging on GQG’s FUM forecasts ?, page-3

US markets not great again overnight. Sure to be more pressure on ASX stocks when we reopen tomorrow.

Unfortunately this is the dose of market reality that was always going to happen at some point.

All previous FUM growth forecasts for GQG can be thrown out the window if this market correction continues much longer. FUM might even go backwards in coming months.

The MFG situation hasn’t helped - it’s trashing has cross-infected confidence across all stocks in the funds management game.

Of course back in November no one saw this kind of sell off happening 3 months later but it demonstrates there is always the risk of losing 20% or 30% of your capital even when the whole thing is underpinned by a broad portfolio of stocks handpicked by experts.

The GQG float at $2 was nicely timed in terms of the owners cashing in on a peaking market and handing over the risk to a new bunch of investors via the float.....the $2 price ticket obviously priced on what, at the time, was a believable set of FUM growth forecasts.

I don’t mind the look of the top 10 stocks that GQG are holding and ‘Exxon in/NVDA out’ is looking like a good move however as has been evident with the MFG trainwreck .....as soon as the market gets a whiff of flattening or declining FUM a funds management stock is in big trouble.

If I see GQG back down in the $1.50’s I’ll be tempted to take a stake because that does looks cheap....but that’s what I thought when MFG got down to $30.

Let’s hope it doesn’t drop another 10c tomorrow- that would ring some serious alarm bells.