Dow 14000

Originally posted by wombat53 ↑

Only a 23% re-tracement from the May 2015 high?? Barely enough to "officially" call it a bear market...surely you aren't being serious?
Personally I don't care for the DOW (30 stocks only, theoretically the creme de la creme, but a lot of laggards there...look at IBM....15 successive quarterly revenue declines).
Hence they recently included AAPL and tossed out the venerable T ...fat lot of good that did...AAPL officially in bear mkt territory...just as in 2000 they (Dow Jones) introduced the first non-NYSE stocks, MSFT, INTC to "sex it up"..fat lot of good that did them, once again...MSFT fell 50%).
The S&P is the global benchmark and yes, did break key August 2015 Support of 1867.
If interested in the DOW indices, I think this one is far more indicative of where things are going, its little known and less followed (here, in Oz) twin sister. No comments about oil, except read my signature.
"advising no more rate cuts this year."
Did you mean cuts...or hikes? Some regional Fed Presidents (Lacker, Williams, others) are still talking about 1.375% end of year. It will not happen - maybe, just maybe, one more hike, to maintain credibility, and give a little more dry powder, but QE4 is a near certainty. NY Fed Pres Dudley has countenanced the possibility of NIRP in the Q&A after his recent Speech (obviously not in the prepared speech below), but it was basically the Party line in that speech (tho he says it's his own view), which I suggest some might wish to read, if only to see where their heads are at. He's a very smart guy, always was....but also has a job to do.
The NY Fed Pres (ex Goldman, FWIW) is the most powerful President of them all, and a permanent voting member of FOMC. NY Fed President has historically been at the forefront of historic bailouts (LTCM 1997, 2008 etc.)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2016/dud160115

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In order :
( a) a bear market is a bear market. It can 21% , 23% or 30% it's all a bear market. Whether it feels like a bear market or acts like one is open to interpretation. Just like the weather which I'm sure we could debate all the same.
( b) you have said this to me before about the Dow. I don't agree I see merit in having a Dow and I actually think it's probably just as important today as ever. With the Dow you have companies and brands which have a global reach to nearly every part of the globe. It's a barometer not just for the US economy but more so to many parts of the global economy and in particular Asia. Reading the quarterly reports from the Dow companies can actually give you an excellent insight into what is happening in different parts of the world rather than just relying on economists and market commenters.
(c) I corrected my cuts to raises in a subsequent post , you obviously didn't read it.
(d) I don't subscribe to anyone's thesis or theories. I put out my own guess work based on my own logic or lack thereof. But 14000 is just a round no. just like when I put 16000. In fact I actually think the Dow will go below 14000 probably closer to 13666 ( but that just sounds funny ).
So because I find it annoying when people like you make assumptions about me which you have no idea about I'll give you full disclosure. I'm working of the S & P 500 and my own idea on how earnings/ PE's are overvalued by at least 25%. S & P 500 high is 2134. 25% of it is 533. 2134 - 533 = 1601. I've done the same thing with Dow and rounded it up. I'm sure many people can come to the same conclusion based on any valid or even stupid method.

Anyway, I'd be interested if you would like to put a quantifiable prediction out before the fact. As far as I'm concerned it's just a bit of fun. I'm making good money with the market going up and down 1 or 2 percent each day so in reality I don't care either way. Just keep the volatility going.

Unconvincing performance by the Dow. Oil up 5% and markets can't even manage a 1% gain. Even after Draghi gave them hope of more QE to come. Goldman Sachs finished at a 2.5 year low , JPM is 10% than last month when the Fed raised rates. Whatever happened to the theory put out there second half of last year that higher US interest rates would be good for all the banks.